Red Queens and the End-Game

Red Queen technological emergence is focused on the struggle of two technologies for dominance. (Thornburg, D., 2008). Dr. Thornburg described the rapid development and product enhancements that would result in the struggle. He noted the similarity to the Red Queen’s admonition that Alice needed to run as fast as she could to stay in the same place and twice as fast to get somewhere else. In this case, the rush is to market and product or technology superiority.  Using a chess game as an analogy, DVDs may be in their end game with checkmate in sight.

For our class, I borrowed the video we needed to see from the library. It was free, and the DVD format worked with our TV and PCs. Video on Demand (VOD) was not available for these videos at the library. I would have needed to “rent” or buy it from a VOD distributor. 

I would classify the current struggle between DVDs and VOD as a Red Queen struggle with overtones of an evolutionary technology emergence. In an earlier Blog entry, I described the competition between Software as a Product (SaaP) and Software as a Service (SaaS). SaaS evolved from SaaP and is now in a competition for dominance. DVDs are like a SaaP product. DVDs require purchase of a hardware product. Storage, packaging, distribution, and returns all contribute to the cost for the product. Video on Demand is stored digitally, can be rented or downloaded, and only requires a web site to package and sell it. Arthur (1996) described increasing returns as the tendency for a technology with the lead in a struggle to “run faster” while the weaker technology falls behind.  VOD is displaying increasing returns in the market.

If I were to construct a merged McLuhan Tetrad for DVDs and VOD it would look like this

Thornburg, D. (2008c). Red Queens, butterflies, and strange attractors: Imperfect lenses into emergent technologies. Lake Barrington, IL: Thornburg Center for Space Exploration.

Arthur, W. B. (1996). Increasing returns and the new world of business. Harvard Business Review, 74(4), 100−109. Retrieved from the Business Source Complete database.

A Second Life …but not nine lives

Thornburg (n.d.) described a disruptive technology as one that suddenly appears and begins to replace an established and functional technology. Cost, speed, user resonance, or applicability may help drive the disruptive technology to replace the established technology. Thornburg used the example of the computer chip replacing vacuum tubes as an example.

 Second Life was a disruptive technology. Imagine the internet driven by corporate sites like Amazon and gaming sites like World of Warcraft. Rosedale (2008) described the power of Second Life. His illustration was that many people can shop at Amazon and leave passive reviews. In Second Life they can shop together and discuss a purchase in real time. He showed how Second Life could allow shopping virtually with the shoppers seeing each other’s avatars and  expressing “live” their love or hate of a product. Rosedale focused on this real time sharing, communicating, and socializing. This granted Second Life the power to displace “brick and mortar” and virtual stores.

The interactivity of gaming sites was made passé by a universe that could be altered by the players. Suddenly there was a world that could change daily and not be the same the next time you “played.” An idea could become a reality and a desire could become an object. Rosedale (2008) described a virtual world where users could explore, create, and experience.

Second Life allows people to create and share their dreams. They can create a church with the type of fellowship they have longed for in their real lives. It provided a venue to meet people very like and different from their normal social engagements.

According to Heath and Heath (2012), Second Life is already failing and being disrupted. It has a million users a month, but Facebook has 500 million logins a month. Perhaps a growing technology used by the Nintendo Wii will disrupt it. Boulton (2012) noted that Gartner analysts saw the Wii as one of the 10 most disruptive technologies in 2012. It allowed the user to cognitively interact, socialize, and physically act in the new environment. It restored the body and mind to the user in its technology. Wii's scope may be too small, but combined with the ability to create a universe like Second Life, it becomes a more real virtual experience.

Boulton, C. (2012) The 10 most disruptive technologies. eWeek.com. Retrieved from http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Messaging-and-Collaboration/10-Most-Disruptive-Technologies/

Heath, D. & Heath, C. (2011). Why Second Life failed. Slate.com. Retrieved from http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2011/11/why_second_life_failed_how_the_milkshake_test_helps_predict_which_ultra_hyped_technology_will_succeed_and_which_won_t_.html

Rosedale, P. (2008). Philip Rosedale on Second Life [Video]. Retrieved from http://www.ted.com/talks/the_inspiration_of_second_life.html.

Thornburg, D. (n.d.). Disruptive technologies [Video]. Retrieved from Laureate Education, http://sylvan.live.ecollege.com/ec/crs/default.learn?CourseID=6509859&Survey=1&47=3205032&ClientNodeID=984645&coursenav=1&bhcp=1

Rhymes of History – Food For Thought – Delivered

“History doesn't repeat itself - at best it sometimes rhymes” (Mark Twain from ThinkExist.com )

Virtual Shopping and Food Delivery Services

 

There is entry by Designboom that described a virtual supermarket in South Korea. Tesco created a wall in a subway station with food selections from a supermarket. Commuters, using their smart phones, could see the food available. They then would use their iPhone to capture the Quick Response Code (QR code). The app would then send in the order to the store and the food would be delivered to the shopper. The innovation appeals to the mobile, hardworking, tech-savvy, South Korean worker. It is convenient, saves time, and provides a historic service in a new way.

This service is an example of the “Rhymes of History” driving emerging technology (Thornburg, n.d.). Dr. Thornburg identified the role of past activities and innovations as a driving force for emerging technology. The quote at the start of this blog, by Mark Twain, is the source of the name.

The past “Rhymes” for food delivery could include Manna delivered to Moses at around 1400 B.C. The bible narration detailed food delivered daily to the Israelites. Those who interpret the bible literally attribute the food delivery to God. Frank Doernenburg described the provision of Manna and reviewed a speculative technological delivery system, the Manna Machine.

Manna in the desert

The Manna machine

Food delivery by merchants and tradesman ranged from early Chinese explorers to middle age merchants delivering food to the nobility. A list of foods of the renaissance that were imported is described by a Renaissance cookery worksheet by internal schools in Australia. Meals on Wheels were started during World War 2 by the United Kingdom and continues today to deliver food to those who need it.

The many waves of telephone based food delivery can be gleaned by examining the number of patents sought by innovators. The list is documented by Google patents

Computer based food delivery was described by James Cook on How Online Food Delivery Service Functions, an article courtesy of Simple Articles Directory. James Cook described the flow from pure online stores sending supplies to customers to restaurants providing online ordering and delivery. One example of the next wave, smartphone apps to order food for delivery can be seen by the Seamless App for the iPad.


This then returns us to the current stanza in the food delivery rhyme. People shopping by mobile phone, on a wall, while commuting to work. The Rhymes in History driving technology suggests that the beat goes on.


References:

Coolname186. (2011) Meals on wheels timeline. Retrieved from http://www.timetoast.com/timelines/meals-on-wheels

Cook, J. (2011) How online food delivery service functions. Retrieved from http://historyofcomputertechnology.jeremypinc.com/126/how-online-food-delivery-service-functions/

Doernenburg, F. (2000a). Manna in the desert. Retrieved from http://doernenburg.alien.de/alternativ/manna/man00_e.php

Doernenburg, F. (2000b). The Manna machine. Retrieved from http://doernenburg.alien.de/alternativ/manna/man01_e.php

Google Patents. (2009). Food order/delivery system. Google Patents. Retrieved from http://www.google.com/patents/US4797818

Internal Schools. (n.d.) Foods of the Renaissance that were imported. Retrieved from http://www.internal.schools.net.au/edu/lesson_ideas/renaissance/renaissance_cookery_wksht.html

Thornburg, D. (n.d.). Six forces that drive emerging technologies [Video]. Retrieved from Laureate Education.  http://sylvan.live.ecollege.com/ec/crs/default.learn?CourseID=6509859&Survey=1&47=3205032&ClientNodeID=984645&coursenav=1&bhcp=1

Seamless. (2012). Seamless mobile iPhone app. Seamless North America, LLC. Retrieved from http://www.seamless.com/mobile-apps/ipad/

Using McLuhan’s tetrad, Solid State Drives (SSDs) can be viewed as an emerging technology.
They enhance our experience with computers by making our interactions more real time. The SSD's speed of access for retrieving data and avoiding the time it takes to wait for the disk to rotate for the next read (latency), makes things like Windows boot time much more acceptable. The potential for reliability over a mechanical hard disk is also a great plus. Both should drive SSDs to replace standard hard disks.

The speed of access is important as it must compare with the human memory's speed of access. The amount of storage and clarity of images already surpasses our memory's ability. In the future storage in the clouds could make local computer storage obsolete.

SaaS, SaaP, and Saps

The future of software is currently wavering between two poles.

- Software as a Product (SaaP) is the historic method of providing applications. As a simple example, you buy Microsoft Word or download OpenOffice for those who are already angry that I mentioned a Microsoft product. You download the software, install it, and periodically update it. You may need someone to maintain it for you. I handle that task for my family and many friends.

- Software as a Service (SaaS) is a newer means of software distribution. You pay by use or amount of traffic. The software is automatically updated, running, and maintained. Think of it like renting a house. Someone else cuts the grass, updates are done without you needing to do them, and the owner handles problems. Stevenson (2008) put it this way: "SaaS is about hiding the essential software-ness of Software."

Let's look at an example: a Learning Management System (LMS). This will be a "little" over-simplified but should help show the differences between SaaS and SaaP.

Moodle uses SaaP. It is widely used and appreciated by many educational and corporate entities.

What are Moodle problems as a SaaP? When the update from Moodle 1.9 to Moodle 2 occurred there were many users crying foul in the forums. The storage changed in a dramatic way to the concept of repositories, there was no easy way to migrate courses and linked data, and installation problems hindered the development of organizations.

If Moodle used SaaS, the developers would have worked out the migration and storage issues. They would have migrated the user's courses and data. Teachers wouldn't need to be IT specialists or programmers. If you don't think this is true look at the forums, for example:
http://moodle.org/mod/forum/discuss.php?d=91496

However, the problem, beside the architectural changes needed, are the cost and support issues. It would require a cloud provider willing to be very inexpensive. It would require the support and development staff to work on a sandbox together.
There is also a personal downside to SaaS. The changes are made and a new release installed without your actions. You wake up and a new release is running. The learning curve and time to productivity can be high. If you don't like Word 2010, you could still keep running Word 2007.

In a SaaS world, there is only one release running and everyone gets it.
In addition, Moodle is very customizable as SaaP. SaaS would require a Browser-like add-in feature that allows the modification and enhancement of the LMS features.

Stevenson, D. (2008). Has SaaS already become passe? Retrieved from
http://it.toolbox.com/blogs/original-thinking/has-saas-already-become-passe-26965